Trends are seductive. Not just the fashion kind, but the line-going-up-or-down kind too. We see a line on a chart going up or down and we tend to a) bias towards assuming that trend will continue b) lose sight of other numbers that help put the trend in context and c) fail to sufficiently interrogate the various factors influencing that trend that may lead it to continue, to stop or to invert.
Beware the trend line
Beware the trend line
Beware the trend line
Trends are seductive. Not just the fashion kind, but the line-going-up-or-down kind too. We see a line on a chart going up or down and we tend to a) bias towards assuming that trend will continue b) lose sight of other numbers that help put the trend in context and c) fail to sufficiently interrogate the various factors influencing that trend that may lead it to continue, to stop or to invert.